Presidential Candidate Hillary Clinton, New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton; or On the Poll Numbers in April

Hillary Clinton started the month of April as the prohibitive favorite to win the Democratic Presidential nomination. Now, granted, the first primary won't happen until the Iowa Caucus on January 18th (256 days from now; if I can figure out some more html, I will add a countdown to the blog), but pundits continued to insist that if Obama, Edwards, or someone else didn't do something fast, she might pull away like Secretariat. Well, Hillary may bear a striking resemblance to the famous Triple-Crown winner, but she is not pulling away by any means.

According to a Rasmussen poll released Monday, Obama has passed Clinton among likely Democratic primary voters. In the poll, which has a margin of error of +/- 4%, Obama now leads by a "statistically insignificant" 2% margin at 32%-30%. John Edwards lags behind in third at 17%, and no other candidate has more than 3%. Clinton holds a slight lead among white voters, while Obama has taken a 16% lead among African-American voters.

This is a far cry from one month ago. On April 2, Hillary led 33%-26%-17%. That lead had shrunk to 5% the following week, 2% two weeks later, and was a deadheat at 32-32 on April 23. Obama's lead is stronger than Hillary's as well. Thirty-three percent of voters said they would definitely vote for him in the general election. He also holds a lead in favorability, with a 59% favorability rating and 32% unfavorable mark. Hillary sits at 50%-49%; that is a testament of how polarizing and divisive she is.

Read more here: Obama leads Clinton

Fundraising clearly played a role in this shift. When Hillary revealed that she had raised $26 million during the first quarter on April 2, it was widely assumed she had command in the money race. However, just two days later, Obama's camp disclosed that he had raised $25 million, of which at least $23.5 million will go towards the primaries, which is more than Hillary. Obama also raised that money from more than 100,000 donators, more than twice as many as Clinton. This went to show that his grassroots efforts are working quite well.

Clearly, this race is still way too close to call, and anyone who says that they know who will win has his or her head so far up his or her ass that there is no light available. This should be an interesting several months.